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Tuesday, September 20, 2011


 The results of a UWP internal poll are summarised in the table below.It shows 10 seats for SLP, 6 for UWP and 1 for independent (Janine). With SLP gaining significant momentum, the final results might be well turn out to be a "shocker".

Castries North

Micoud South

Gone SLP

Dennery South
Gone SLP

Castries South-East
Leaning SLP (slight)

Dennery North
Leaning SLP (Solid)

Leaning SLP (slight)?
Leaning UWP (very Slender)?

Castries Central
Leaning UWP (slender)

Anse La Raye
Leaning UWP (slender)

Micoud North

Janine (Safe)
Gros Islet

Leaning UWP (slight, but Emma gaining sig. ground)


Vieux Fort North

Vieux Fort South


Castries South

Castries East


UWP’s internal polls are showing them with the following safe, unassailable seats:
Castries North:
Micoud South:

They’re showing the two UWP seats as completely gone to SLP:
Dennery South

Three seats are leaning toward SLP:
Castries South-East (slightly)
Dennery North (solidly)

They are showing Babonneau is very interesting. At best, it we can describe Babonneau as very vulnerable. The poll results are conflicting and rangie from slightly SLP to a very, very slender lead by the UWP. In other words Babonneau is a genuine toss-up with SLP gaining momentum.

UWP’s pollsters are showing the UWP with extremely slender leads in the following seats:
Castries Central (very slender)
Anse La Raye (slender)

Gros Islet’s still Spider’s seat to lose, although Emma’s gained impressive ground. The trends are showing that the longer King delays calling the election the greater chance Emma’s going to take this seat from Spider. LPM’s candidate in this seat doesn’t yet seem to be factoring enough to change the outcome, but that can change.

Micoud North’s becoming an interesting seat. Gail Regobert hasn’t made a positive impression on the voters, and UWP’s lost a lot of ground in that seat since the last poll. Jeanine Compton’s holding her own and is gaining ground. She is coming very close to splitting the UWP vote in two and if the trend continues she will soon overtake Gail Regobert / UWP. The SLP Candidate seems to holding on to the traditional SLP vote in this UWP stronghold.

Labour is unassailable in three seats:
Laborie, Vieux Fort North and Vieux Fort South.

Castries South is staying solidly Labour, although Doddy Francis looks like he’s doing a little better than his predecessor Tessa Mangal.

Castries East is also solidly under the control of SLP despite the huge spending by the UWP. Guy Mayers hasn’t made any strides in this constituency since the last poll, which is worrying his campaign manager and inner circle. There’s also displeasure in the Mayer’s camp that he isn’t getting the type of support   internally that he expected.

What’s really depressing UWP is the performance of Chastanet in Soufriere. The previous poll that UWP conducted had Soufriere solidly RED, but the UWP felt that it was way too early to assess the impact of Chastanet. They’re now very disappointed to see that in their recent assessments the situation hasn’t changed. In fact, it seems that UWP’s neglect of Soufriere and Fond St Jacques since Tomas has really hurt them. Dalson’s actually increased his lead over Chastanet in Soufriere.  Chastanet’s also unhappy that both Bousquet and Frederick aren’t on his side and have made several unflattering comments about his candidacy.

The foreign strategists who’re working with the UWP have advised King to call the elections soon. King’s also under a lot of pressure from those within his party like Spider and Ezechiel who feel that their seats are under pressure and don’t want to give their opponents more time to gain ground. But on the other hand there those are like Frederick, Mondesir, Guy Mayers, Chastanet and Guy Joseph who don’t want to elections called yet. They want the campaign stretched out in the hope that SLP will make some mistakes and that the big spending in the constituencies will buy them some votes. 

King’s caught between a rock and a hard place right now. He’s being advised by multiple conflicting sources. Rick Wayne’s advice to focus on Grynberg is contrary to what the foreign strategists are telling King. King’s attempts to consolidate his own power base with Gail Regobert and Karl Daniel have put him at odds with Frederick and Rufus, who wanted Frederick’s sister in Micoud North and Mike Chitolie in Vieux Fort South. The power plays and tensions are becoming more intense. The old UWP core’s also trying to create some distance between themselves and Frederick and Rufus because they realize that these two candidates are hurting the national campaign. That’s why recently Clem Bobb, the chairman of the Party and Chairman of the DCA, made it clear that he didn’t agree with Frederick’s plan to lease green space on the Waterfront to an Italian.

The fortunes of the UWP appear to be getting worse with every passing day and the mood in the country’s definitely hardened against the Government.
By the way the above assessments aren’t mine. They’re a summary of the weekly assessments being given to Stephenson King and the executive of his party by his highly paid consultants. So despite what the UWP’s spin machine’s telling you or trying to make you believe, the situation inside the camp’s very different. It’s tense and anxious, slowly becoming desperate.


  1. It's heartwarming to see that good sense is prevailing in St. Lucia.

    I say this because the strategy used by the UWP has been clear: use dirty money to get votes. Is UWP seeing success from this? They would argue a convincing yes. However, when you engage their perceived accomplishments (bought voters)these people seem to be better strategists than the UWP Mafia.In Choiseul, Soufriere & Micoud North the supposedly bought-out voters are achieving their objectives much more effectively than the Mafia in that they get what they came for.

    Did the UWP mafia get what they came for? The polls will be shocking!

    Their sycophants are famished yet they are peripatetic, hunting in circles, failing to realize that the only prey to take home is the reflection in the mirror.

    Better days are coming!

  2. Frederick and Bousquet really need to get the hell out of politics but someone is probably paying them to ensure the UWP loses so they aren't budging.