Tropical Low Could Become Emily Soon

By Brian Edwards, Meteorologist

Jul 31, 2011; 10:20 AM ET

 

A tropical low located several hundred miles to the east of the Lesser Antilles is becoming better organized and could develop into Emily within the next day.

Tropical Low to Organize

This area of low pressure continues to cruise westward across the central Atlantic Basin. Recent satellite imagery shows quite a bit of shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low which is a good sign that organization is occurring. 

In addition, atmospheric conditions are generally favorable for further development and then some strengthening as the system tracks toward the Lesser Antilles. 

The amount of wind shear or "changing of the wind direction and speed with height" is still causing some issues in getting the storm to organize. However, the shear values are lower over the central and eastern Caribbean directly in the path of the system.

Another thing that AccuWeather.com Meteorologists are concerned about is a front running piece of energy which is going to bring showers and thunderstorms to the Lesser Antilles tonight. This piece of energy has flared up the last few hours and could be robbing the aforementioned low of moisture and inhibiting further organization. 

However, some of our forecast tools are showing the primary low developing into what would the Tropical Storm Emily within the next day or so. 

Beyond that, there is some concern that Emily could strengthen fairly quickly given the warm waters and low shear values in its vicinity. Therefore, it is certainly possible that Emily approaches hurricane status by Tuesday. 

This is bad news for the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico as impacts from this feature, whether it develops or not, will be felt beginning Monday night and continuing into Tuesday.

The system at the time of passage could bring risk to lives and property from flash flooding, mudslides and washouts.

This system could be the start of a more active portion of the hurricane season as we are entering the point in the Atlantic Hurricane Season when Cape Verde systems take center stage. Storms that originate in this area of the Atlantic produce hurricanes among the strongest we ever see beginning in August.

Another Hurricane Looms over the Heads of the Poor

We were utterly devastated by Tomas last October; and we still remain a nation in deep crisis, with our Human Development Indices (HDI) continuing to drop! We have numerous “geo-technical wounds and fractures” that may have now turned seriously malignant, hence putting us on course to becoming another Haiti.

The rich does not feel those pains. The Ministers of Government do not feel them either! In addition to their “fat pay packets" every month, government MPs get an extra million dollars a year. How sweet! They have now joined the ranks of millionaires overnight. According to Bingo they now have big houses at Vigie, Lobster for their dinner, steak for lunch and Red Bull and peanut punch for appetizer. But what about the poor that those millionaires represent? The poor who can’t afford to buy sugar, rice and flour? The poor whose only benefit is a Ti Canal contract which adds only insult to injury.

The story of the Balca farmers – who are still reeling from the effects of Tomas - is painful and heart-rending. There’s that farmer in particular who started a farming employment project but whose farm was completely wiped out by Tomas; Almost, a year later, government has never come to his assistance and he is left on his own to fend.

The same is true for scores of farmers all across the constituency especially in Saltibus, Morne Jacques. While a few Tucker Flies fatten the pockets with Tucker’s ill-gotten gains, the constituency at large continues to suffer.

The district reps is solely preoccupied with Ti canals and never saw it fit to give assistance to the poor farmers to help them rehabilitate their plots. He is busy wasting Taiwanese funds on campaign projects, not on the development of his constituency.

Meanwhile, a potentially massive storm looms over our heads and we are in living in dread of more devastation - whether it be by wind, rain and sea

The most we can do is to pray to God for help.

May God bless and protect us, especially the residents who live in disaster-prone areas!

Demonising Fergy to discredit Lorne

 

The attempts by the “Tucker Flies” to demonise Fergy are both pathetic and desperate. If they are at all serious about their claims, and as part of the run-up to the General Elections, I challenge “all and sundry” who claim that Fergy did nothing to a debate Fergy's achievements (vs Tucker's) in an open forum.

But I know beforehand that they will all "chicken out" because they know what the results will be. They know Fergy will tear them apart into pieces. So they will continue to hide like cowards and level baseless allegations against him.

Can you imagine Griffifth or Dedan Jn Baptiste – a former teacher, national cricketer and record-breaking pole-vaulter - of all persons, being used as a pawn in the game to throw dirt against Fergy in an attempt to discredit Lorne?  

 If Rufus loved Gilo, then why hasn’t he seen it fit to at least recommend him for a national honour for his achievements in Sports? Instead, Rufus seems quite happy with Gilo’s current state. 

But Lorne Theophilus will change that! In his first year in office and as part of making Choiseul great, he will honour all "great Choiseulians" and our brother Gilo will be high on the honours list. OK Pippin! No vote-catching barbeques or fake initiatives to bluff our sons and daughters of Choiseul! Right, Pippin?

 In an exclusive feature written by Tucker on his Blog, Tucker and his "Tucker Flies" blamed Fergy for “giving” the Choiseul fishermen a state-of-the-art, modern Fisheries Complex. How intellectually dishonest!

As if to suggest that Tucker has reached the dead-end of his campaign, he and his Tucker-Flies put the blame for the "clogging" of the pond squarely on Fergy’s shoulders.  They, however, remained mute on the fact that the Japanese Gov’t donated an excavator and a dump truck to assist in the de-silting the pond. Where is that excavator and truck?

A potential hurricane is looming large on the Atlantic Ocean and the fishermen urgently need a safe haven for their craft, which are now littered along the coastline and exposed to all sorts of coastal and other vagaries. What will Tucker do for them on Sunday and Monday?

But let’s go back to the issue of blaming Fergy for his "gift"  of a Fisheries Complex to the Choiseul Fishermen! What does that tell us? Very simply, it is telling us that Tucker and his Tucker flies are beginning to eat their own vomit and are now beginning to confess to “Forgetus” achievements.

Let’s continue further: if that trend of apportioning blame continues, very soon Tucker will say that the West Coast Highway “built by Fergy” was also a waste of time. They will soon also say that the Piaye Secondary School “built by Fergy” was a waste of time too; and the same thing will be said of the Balca Playing Field also “built by Fergy”. The spread of the internet and cable TV put all around Choiseul “by Fergy” will also be a waste of time. The medical doctors, engineers, teachers and nurses who “Fergy gave” scholarships will definitely too be an absolute waste of time according to the Gospel of Rufus!

That is the “Dirty Harry” politics of the Tucker-Flies” around Choiseul; and there’s a long list of the Dirty Harry craft practiced by them, including the ridiculing of universal secondary education (USE) and the stalling of Universal Health Care (UHC) at a time Choiseulians need them most. 

They demonised Rochamel which turned out to be very successful; and they are all against oil exploration and the possible building of an oil refinery in St. Lucia.

They make every good successful project look bad; yet the only thing they have to show are “Ti Canals”.

St. Lucians have to choose between a government who desire to invest in mega-development projects (like Grynberg) that will potential bring universal employment and progress and the Ti Canal paradigm of development.

Choiseul/Saltibus chose Fergy twice over Tucker because they had faith that Fergy would deliver and he did. They choose SLP over UWP twice because they knew the SLP would deliver and it did. Now we all have seen our mistakes. We see that the development of the country has come to a absolute halt. 

It's time for action!

Is Hurricane Emily 3 Days Away?

A large tropical wave accompanied by a well-defined low pressure system is located about 1200 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. AccuWeather reports that "this disturbance is showing signs of organization...and environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development over the next few days".  This system has a medium chance (30 percent) of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves westward or west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.

Large Tropical system hovering over the Atlantic

Weather forecasters continue to monitor this tropical wave over the south central North Atlantic along 40 West.

AccuWeather reports that the wave has “an area of low pressure and counterclockwise turning clouds”, resembling a hurricane in the making. It’s coordinates are near 10 North, 40 West or 1200 miles southeast of St. Lucia.

At this moment, it is both a “wave” and a “low” and are moving in a westerly direction at about 6-7 degrees longitude per day. At this speed, this system should start affecting the Lesser Antilles on Monday.

Computer simulations suggest that there is a “higher than normal chance for tropical development” in the next few days due to the weak low-level circulation already with this system.

Another View of the potential Storm

As reported earlier, the system is likely to begin affecting us on Monday, August 1 or at about the same time we were affected by Hurricane Allen in 1979.

The Powerhouse urges all to begin to take all necessary precautions and start planning way in advance. Persons living in low-lying flood-prone areas or areas vulnerable to landslides and high winds are asked to take special note.