Source:
http://www.caribbean360.com/index.php/news/barbados_news/712717.html
BRIDGETOWN,
Barbados, Friday May 17, 2013 – Adding its voice to predictions of some pretty
wild weather for the Caribbean and the United States in the forthcoming months,
private weather firm AccuWeather has concurred with the forecasting teams who
have already predicted an above-average Atlantic hurricane season this year.
In
a forecast released earlier this week, AccuWeather expects that 16 named
tropical storms will form, of which eight will become hurricanes.
Based
on records that go back to 1950, an average season’s tally is 12 tropical
storms, of which six are hurricanes, according to the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
The
above-normal number of storms predicted by forecasters to date is attributed to
unusually warm water across the Atlantic and Caribbean, along with less
frequent wind shear.
According
to AccuWeather, three of the storms are predicted to make landfall in the
United States, with Florida thought to be long overdue for a direct hurricane
hit. While the state has been hit by named tropical storms in the past couple
of years, AccuWeather meteorologist Dan Kottlowski says a direct hit by a
hurricane has not occurred since Hurricane Wilma in 2005.
AccuWeather
reports that concern is also high along the East Coast of the United States,
due to the remaining devastation from the landfall of Superstorm Sandy in
October 2012.
Last
month, several forecasters predicted an above-average 2013 hurricane season,
with Weatherbell’s well-known forecaster Joe Bastardi saying that this could be
a very dangerous hurricane year for the Caribbean and the southeast United
States. He also forecast above-average activity up the East Coast and into the
Gulf and further west.
Bastardi
called for 16 named tropical storms, a very high 12 hurricanes, and 5
hurricanes reaching major status of Category 3 or higher.
The
Weatherbell expert believes that 2013 will see hurricane activity shift back to
the traditional paths we know from seasons such as 2004 and 2005, with
hurricanes tracking a little further south than in 2012 – a pattern generally
thought to raise Caribbean risk.
In
their pre-season forecast issued last month, Colorado State University (CSU)
weather gurus Phil Klotzbach and William Gray also predicted a turbulent,
above-average storm season. The CSU tropical research experts predicted a high
18 named storms, including nine hurricanes, four of which would be major.
According
to the two CSU climatologists, the tropical Atlantic is unusually warm and El
Niño, the atmospheric force that inhibits storm formation, is unlikely to
emerge this season, which runs through November 30.
Adding
his comments on El Nino, Jeff Masters, chief meteorologist of online weather
site Weather Underground, said years where neither El Niño nor its polar
opposite, La Niña, emerge can be highly active.
“Remember
the neutral El Niño year of 2005?” he said, referring to the season when 28
storms, including 15 hurricanes, formed.
Meanwhile,
respected forecasters Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) are also expecting an
above-average season this year.
In
their pre-season forecast released in April, TSR predicted 15 named tropical
storms, 8 of which will become hurricanes and 3 of which will attain Category 3
status or higher becoming major hurricanes.
Adding
to the list of predictions released in April, Weather Services International
published its early season Atlantic hurricane forecast for 16 named storms, 9
hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes.
The
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is scheduled to release
its predictions later this month.
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