BRIDGETOWN,
Barbados, Tuesday February 19, 2013 – The main opposition Barbados Labour Party
(BLP) is likely to win as many as 20 seats in Thursday’s general election,
according to the latest opinion poll published here on Tuesday.
The
poll by the Caribbean Development Research Services Inc (CADRES), shows that
the BLP, led by former Prime Minister Owen Arthur could win between 17 and 20
of the 30 seats to be contested in the general election.
It
said that the incumbent Democratic Labour Party (DLP) headed by Prime Minister
Freundel Stuart “will occupy the opposition benches with between 10 and 13
seats”.
Last
weekend CADRES published a poll in which it said that voters had preferred
Prime Minister Stuart to lead the country as against Arthur by a 39 to 36 per
cent.
“On
this occasion, Stuart’s approval rating has risen from 39 to 41 per cent while
Arthur’s has remained constant at exactly 37 per cent. The disapproval rates
for both leaders have increased marginally with Stuart’s moving from 40 to 41
per cent and Arthur’s moving from 38 to 41 per cent. In both instances the
movement came from the uncommitted cohort which is somewhat smaller for both
leaders.”
The
DLP, which had been trailing the opposition for the past several months, had
narrowed the gap to a statistical dead heat, according to the first poll
released over the last weekend.
“The
main noteworthy comparative observation is that the BLP was leading in the
polls one week ago and continues to lead on this occasion and appears to have
widened its lead. It is also clear to CADRES that this will be one of the most
marginal and indeed competitive campaigns ever endured in this nation’s
history.
“This
marginality is evidenced by the fact that a shift of four to five per cent in
support over the last week has resulted in a presumptive loss of five more
seats for the DLP.
“CADRES
has repeatedly made the point that this DLP government appears strong in terms
of numbers but is in reality comparatively weaker than any other first term
government that the DLP has had previously.
“As
such the slightest deterioration in support will have a devastating impact on
seats. It is against this background that CADRES has argued that the party
better organised on Election Day in all of the marginal constituencies has what
would be called a better “fighting chance” to win those “seats”.
But
the pollsters said notwithstanding the possibility of DLP “surprises” in some
instances, “CADRES is at this time of the opinion that the BLP will win the
2013 election on Thursday with between 17 and 20 seats, while we believe that
the DLP will occupy the opposition benches with between 10 and 13 seats”.
CADRES
said that the latest poll was conducted during the week February 15-18 and
reflected public opinion in the second week of the campaign.
“...the
point needs to be made that this second poll captured a fully evolved election campaign
and the launch of both manifestos which were not available when the last poll
was conducted. As such this poll in our opinion presents a far better podium
from which we can assess the likely outcome of the 2013 general election.”
It
said in the first poll, the non-response was 33 per cent, but on this occasion
the non-response was 24 per cent.
The
pollsters found that the “data indicates that a majority of Barbadians are not
satisfied that “we” are on the right track, and a similarly marginal majority
believe that it is time for a change of government.
“These
two responses indicate a high level of indecision on the part of the electorate
which is clearly divided about the extent to which the government should be
changed, and whether it has performed well.”
(CMC)
SOURCE: http://www.caribbean360.com/
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