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Thursday, November 24, 2011


Flambeau’s committing suicide with Statistical demagoguery

In this election, every Flambeau is a “statistical expert”. When they were counting votes a few weeks ago, they proclaimed that they had “won” the Choiseul/Saltibus seat by 300 votes; and they confidently sealed that verdict in a box and put it away in a safe place. They also claimed that they would win the I-5 (Roblot) Box by an estimated 200 votes and that too was sealed in a box and put away!

But something very strange happened: there was no statistical “goodness-of -fit” between the results of the Flambeau “numbers-crunching game” and the mood on the ground. One did not reflect the other! So naturally they were force to reopen the box and to make fixes. Today, they concede that they will lose Roblot by 50 votes.

The “Roblot finding” must have sent shockwaves through the already ailing body of Tucker; and drove him into a frenzy of desperation. So despite his failing health and his doctor’s advice to rest, Tucker was by 7.30 on Sunday November 20 frantically knocking on Roblot doors carelessly offering them voters advanced contracts and money in exchange for votes.

Voting patterns suggest that Roblot falls in the category of  the genuinely "swing voter community" and may therefore be a very good predictor of the results of the Choiseul/Saltibus poll.

Mongouge and Delcer have traditionally displayed “garrison” characteristics; but I suspect that this year, there may well be surprises in the distributions of votes in both polling divisions; and the potential changes are so nuanced, so underground, so camouflaged that they are imperceptible to the untrained eye. Suffice it to say, we anticipate a very late national or constituency swing; and it is expected it to reflect in the election results.

Apparently, the “statistically deficient” UWP experts still subscribe to an old, “stone-age system” using a “one-to-one correspondence” to measure their support in an area or constituency. They distribute customised voters lists to selected ground teams/persons that attempt to code them; and using the coded results, the experts quantify the support for the candidates and use the results as the basis for their decision-making.

Of course, this approach has brought many headaches to the UWP pundits because, it is tedious and it is not responsive to sudden changes or swings. It was that same “foolproof method” the Tennyson Joseph camp used in 2006 but which brought them defeat.

Meanwhile, Tucker’s Campaign Manager who was accused of sundry electoral malpractices in 2006 is back at it again. A sample of voters has reported that he is currently busy “working the lines” promising cash and goodies in exchange for votes. We would like the election observers from the COMMONWEALTH, CARICOM & OAS to take a careful look at those practices and to incorporate their findings in the final report. In the meantime, we will continue to monitor those practices for further reference. 

Choiseul/Saltibus is in the "toss up" up category; but Lorne Theophilus currently enjoys a statistical lead of 10%. (45% -UWP; 55%- SLP); margin of error is 5% .  All things being equal, he should win the seat.

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